Season 2020

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Montrose 100.0% 156.4%
Stevenage 100.0% 68.0%
Annan Athletic 75.0% 52.3%
Brechin 100.0% 49.4%
Nottingham Forest 100.0% 49.1%
Ipswich Town 75.0% 46.5%
Dundee 100.0% 44.0%
Raith Rovers 100.0% 43.9%
Middlesbrough 75.0% 43.9%
Dumbarton 100.0% 37.4%
Inverness CT 100.0% 37.1%
Fleetwood Town 80.0% 36.5%
Dundee Utd 100.0% 36.3%
Hull City 100.0% 35.0%
Falkirk 100.0% 34.9%
Edinburgh City 100.0% 34.8%
Coventry City 100.0% 33.0%
Dunfermline 66.7% 32.0%
Newcastle United 100.0% 31.5%
Bristol City 100.0% 31.3%
Cove Rangers 100.0% 29.5%
Sunderland 75.0% 28.5%
Rotherham 50.0% 28.1%
Salford City 60.0% 26.8%
Walsall 60.0% 26.6%
Cambridge United 80.0% 24.8%
Everton 66.7% 22.2%
Hearts 66.7% 22.1%
Stoke City 80.0% 19.8%
Burton Albion 100.0% 19.2%
Alloa 66.7% 18.5%
Swansea City 100.0% 15.8%
West Bromwich Albion 50.0% 15.3%
AFC Wimbledon 100.0% 14.9%
Celtic 100.0% 14.3%
Gillingham 100.0% 13.4%
Liverpool 100.0% 13.1%
Morecambe 80.0% 11.8%
St Johnstone 100.0% 11.0%
Sheffield Utd 66.7% 10.9%
Rangers 100.0% 10.9%
Manchester City 100.0% 10.0%
Livingston 100.0% 7.5%
Huddersfield Town 75.0% 7.4%
Elgin City 75.0% 6.9%
Clyde 33.3% 6.8%
Fulham 80.0% 5.9%
Leyton Orient 60.0% 5.7%
Cardiff City 100.0% 4.9%
Reading 75.0% 3.6%
Southend United 75.0% 3.5%
Stranraer 75.0% 1.9%
Ross County 100.0% 0.0%
Oxford United 75.0% -0.0%
MK Dons 66.7% -0.6%
Exeter City 80.0% -1.8%
Queens Park Rangers 100.0% -2.0%
Forfar 75.0% -2.7%
Aberdeen 66.7% -3.5%
Portsmouth 100.0% -4.1%
Wolverhampton W 66.7% -5.0%
Oldham Athletic 100.0% -5.3%
Queen's Park 100.0% -7.7%
Watford 66.7% -7.9%
Swindon Town 80.0% -7.9%
West Ham United 66.7% -8.5%
Lincoln City 60.0% -8.9%
Arsenal 100.0% -9.3%
Brentford 50.0% -9.7%
Albion 50.0% -9.9%
Luton Town 50.0% -11.3%
Kilmarnock 66.7% -12.7%
Ayr 66.7% -13.2%
Bristol Rovers 80.0% -13.6%
Carlisle United 80.0% -14.9%
Forest Green Rovers 60.0% -15.8%
Scunthorpe 40.0% -16.0%
Hamilton 66.7% -16.2%
Hibernian 33.3% -16.6%
Bournemouth 66.7% -16.9%
Partick Thistle 66.7% -18.1%
Southampton 66.7% -18.7%
Bradford City 60.0% -18.8%
Plymouth Argyle 60.0% -19.5%
Wigan Athletic 50.0% -19.6%
Blackpool 100.0% -20.0%
Tottenham Hotspur 66.7% -20.0%
Sheffield Wed. 75.0% -20.1%
Crystal Palace 66.7% -21.2%
Barnsley 75.0% -21.3%
Leicester City 66.7% -21.5%
Burnley 66.7% -22.3%
Chelsea 66.7% -22.5%
Stirling Albion 66.7% -23.4%
Manchester United 66.7% -25.1%
Accrington Stanley 50.0% -26.7%
St Mirren 66.7% -26.7%
Millwall 50.0% -27.3%
Stenhousemuir 50.0% -29.2%
Airdrie 75.0% -29.2%
Colchester United 60.0% -33.0%
Brighton and HA 100.0% -33.3%
Northampton Town 60.0% -34.0%
Crewe Alexandra 40.0% -38.7%
Leeds United 25.0% -40.1%
Birmingham City 75.0% -40.5%
Derby County 100.0% -40.5%
Shrewsbury 50.0% -45.0%
Wycombe Wanderers 50.0% -45.4%
Crawley Town 40.0% -49.4%
Preston NE 50.0% -50.0%
Grimsby Town 60.0% -50.1%
Norwich City 33.3% -51.8%
Mansfield Town 20.0% -52.1%
Rochdale 75.0% -52.3%
Morton 33.3% -54.5%
Motherwell 33.3% -56.0%
Tranmere Rovers 60.0% -60.0%
Arbroath 66.7% -66.7%
Doncaster Rovers 33.3% -66.7%
Aston Villa 33.3% -66.7%
Peterborough United 50.0% -67.9%
Cheltenham 40.0% -73.0%
Bolton Wanderers 25.0% -73.2%
East Fife 50.0% -75.0%
Peterhead 50.0% -75.0%
Blackburn Rovers 25.0% -75.0%
Charlton Athletic 25.0% -75.0%
Port Vale 40.0% -80.0%
Newport 40.0% -80.0%
Macclesfield 40.0% -80.0%
Queen of South 25.0% -100.0%
Cowdenbeath 0.0% -100.0%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Sep 2019100%
1(1)
30%
23(7)
17%
6(1)
26%
137(35)
27%
15(4)
26.4%
Aug 20190%
2(0)
30%
27(8)
43%
7(3)
40%
10(4)
35%
275(95)
29%
17(5)
34.0%
Jun 20190%
1(0)
0.0%
May 20190%
2(0)
0%
1(0)
0%
2(0)
38%
48(18)
31%
26(8)
32.9%
Apr 201937%
38(14)
38%
37(14)
17%
18(3)
19%
42(8)
29%
187(54)
35%
17(6)
29.2%
Mar 20190%
2(0)
25%
44(11)
38%
8(3)
23%
13(3)
29%
242(71)
9%
11(1)
27.8%
Feb 2019100%
3(3)
34%
47(16)
38%
24(9)
43%
7(3)
28%
196(55)
8%
12(1)
30.1%
Jan 20190%
2(0)
28%
60(17)
35%
17(6)
50%
2(1)
37%
167(62)
20%
5(1)
34.4%
Dec 201833%
3(1)
13%
8(1)
34%
65(22)
0%
1(0)
25%
4(1)
36%
273(99)
26%
19(5)
34.6%
Nov 20180%
2(0)
38%
34(13)
33%
6(2)
29%
7(2)
37%
170(63)
17%
12(2)
35.5%
Oct 20180%
2(0)
43%
35(15)
27%
11(3)
0%
3(0)
35%
134(47)
20%
5(1)
34.7%
Total33.3%32.4%32.5%24.0%32.7%24.5%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Sunday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 10 matches played).