conservative investor
Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.
Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.
Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team
CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game
investment day
Period | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 2019 | 100% 1(1) | 57% 7(4) | 20% 5(1) | 20% 5(1) | 41% 128(53) | 70% 10(7) | 42.9% | |
Sep 2019 | 50% 2(1) | 30% 23(7) | 17% 6(1) | 28% 196(54) | 24% 17(4) | 27.5% | ||
Aug 2019 | 0% 2(0) | 30% 27(8) | 43% 7(3) | 40% 10(4) | 35% 275(95) | 29% 17(5) | 34.0% | |
Jun 2019 | 0% 1(0) | 0.0% | ||||||
May 2019 | 0% 2(0) | 0% 1(0) | 0% 2(0) | 38% 48(18) | 31% 26(8) | 32.9% | ||
Apr 2019 | 37% 38(14) | 38% 37(14) | 17% 18(3) | 19% 42(8) | 29% 187(54) | 35% 17(6) | 29.2% | |
Mar 2019 | 0% 2(0) | 25% 44(11) | 38% 8(3) | 23% 13(3) | 29% 242(71) | 9% 11(1) | 27.8% | |
Feb 2019 | 100% 3(3) | 34% 47(16) | 38% 24(9) | 43% 7(3) | 28% 196(55) | 8% 12(1) | 30.1% | |
Jan 2019 | 0% 2(0) | 28% 60(17) | 35% 17(6) | 50% 2(1) | 37% 167(62) | 20% 5(1) | 34.4% | |
Dec 2018 | 33% 3(1) | 13% 8(1) | 34% 65(22) | 0% 1(0) | 25% 4(1) | 36% 273(99) | 26% 19(5) | 34.6% |
Nov 2018 | 0% 2(0) | 38% 34(13) | 33% 6(2) | 29% 7(2) | 37% 170(63) | 17% 12(2) | 35.5% | |
Oct 2018 | 0% 2(0) | 43% 35(15) | 27% 11(3) | 0% 1(0) | 33% 58(19) | 20% 5(1) | 33.9% | Total | 33.9% | 32.9% | 32.1% | 24.2% | 33.1% | 27.2% |
Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.
For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return
Wednesday
is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 50 matches played).