Season 2020

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Montrose 75.0% 92.3%
Annan Athletic 75.0% 52.3%
Nottingham Forest 100.0% 50.3%
Ipswich Town 80.0% 48.6%
Bristol City 100.0% 46.1%
Edinburgh City 100.0% 44.4%
Salford City 71.4% 36.6%
Falkirk 80.0% 36.3%
Fleetwood Town 85.7% 34.5%
St Johnstone 100.0% 34.1%
Raith Rovers 100.0% 32.9%
Dundee Utd 100.0% 32.0%
Gillingham 100.0% 30.0%
Brechin 100.0% 29.6%
Sunderland 80.0% 27.9%
Coventry City 100.0% 27.5%
Middlesbrough 85.7% 25.1%
Ross County 75.0% 24.1%
Cove Rangers 100.0% 23.1%
Dumbarton 100.0% 22.4%
Queens Park Rangers 100.0% 20.3%
Stevenage 85.7% 20.0%
Burton Albion 100.0% 19.2%
Sheffield Utd 75.0% 16.9%
Liverpool 100.0% 14.4%
Celtic 100.0% 14.2%
Dundee 80.0% 14.0%
Walsall 57.1% 13.7%
Aberdeen 50.0% 13.7%
West Bromwich Albion 60.0% 12.2%
Rangers 100.0% 10.5%
Hull City 71.4% 10.2%
Wolverhampton W 60.0% 10.0%
Forfar 80.0% 8.9%
Cardiff City 100.0% 8.7%
Queen's Park 100.0% 8.5%
Cambridge United 71.4% 8.0%
Elgin City 75.0% 6.9%
Fulham 66.7% 6.8%
Southampton 75.0% 6.8%
Forest Green Rovers 71.4% 6.7%
Morecambe 71.4% 5.3%
Portsmouth 80.0% 4.3%
Dunfermline 40.0% 3.5%
Southend United 83.3% 2.3%
Rotherham 50.0% 2.1%
Carlisle United 85.7% 0.3%
Reading 66.7% 0.3%
Newcastle United 75.0% -1.4%
Bradford City 71.4% -2.1%
Arsenal 100.0% -2.6%
Kilmarnock 80.0% -2.7%
Plymouth Argyle 57.1% -3.8%
Everton 60.0% -5.4%
Crystal Palace 80.0% -5.6%
Chelsea 80.0% -5.7%
Leicester City 80.0% -5.8%
Watford 75.0% -5.9%
Hearts 60.0% -6.8%
MK Dons 62.5% -6.8%
Albion 60.0% -7.9%
Oldham Athletic 85.7% -8.6%
Sheffield Wed. 80.0% -9.5%
Ayr 75.0% -9.9%
Leyton Orient 57.1% -10.2%
Alloa 50.0% -11.1%
Huddersfield Town 66.7% -11.8%
Stoke City 57.1% -14.4%
Exeter City 71.4% -15.6%
Blackpool 100.0% -16.7%
Oxford United 66.7% -16.7%
Shrewsbury 60.0% -16.7%
Manchester City 75.0% -17.5%
Inverness CT 60.0% -17.7%
AFC Wimbledon 71.4% -18.0%
Motherwell 60.0% -18.0%
Stranraer 60.0% -18.4%
Livingston 75.0% -19.3%
Bristol Rovers 71.4% -19.3%
Swindon Town 71.4% -19.9%
Lincoln City 57.1% -20.6%
Bournemouth 60.0% -21.5%
Preston NE 66.7% -22.5%
Swansea City 66.7% -22.8%
Brentford 66.7% -23.1%
Tottenham Hotspur 60.0% -24.0%
Luton Town 50.0% -24.2%
Morton 50.0% -24.5%
Leeds United 50.0% -24.8%
Crewe Alexandra 57.1% -27.6%
Rochdale 83.3% -27.9%
Hamilton 60.0% -29.7%
Tranmere Rovers 71.4% -29.9%
West Ham United 50.0% -31.4%
Colchester United 57.1% -31.7%
Barnsley 57.1% -32.0%
Birmingham City 80.0% -32.4%
Peterborough United 66.7% -32.6%
Mansfield Town 42.9% -33.0%
Manchester United 60.0% -35.1%
Peterhead 60.0% -35.6%
Grimsby Town 71.4% -35.8%
Clyde 20.0% -35.9%
St Mirren 60.0% -36.0%
Hibernian 25.0% -37.4%
Derby County 83.3% -38.0%
Partick Thistle 50.0% -38.6%
Norwich City 50.0% -38.8%
East Fife 50.0% -39.3%
Scunthorpe 28.6% -40.0%
Burnley 50.0% -41.7%
Millwall 40.0% -41.8%
Stirling Albion 75.0% -42.6%
Arbroath 60.0% -43.3%
Stenhousemuir 40.0% -43.4%
Wigan Athletic 33.3% -46.4%
Port Vale 42.9% -47.4%
Charlton Athletic 42.9% -47.9%
Newport 57.1% -48.9%
Crawley Town 42.9% -49.6%
Brighton and HA 75.0% -50.0%
Accrington Stanley 33.3% -51.1%
Airdrie 50.0% -52.8%
Northampton Town 42.9% -52.8%
Bolton Wanderers 33.3% -55.4%
Wycombe Wanderers 50.0% -59.0%
Aston Villa 60.0% -60.0%
Cheltenham 50.0% -60.8%
Doncaster Rovers 37.5% -62.5%
Cowdenbeath 20.0% -66.0%
Blackburn Rovers 28.6% -67.8%
Macclesfield 28.6% -85.7%
Queen of South 20.0% -100.0%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Oct 2019100%
1(1)
57%
7(4)
20%
5(1)
20%
5(1)
41%
128(53)
70%
10(7)
42.9%
Sep 201950%
2(1)
30%
23(7)
17%
6(1)
28%
196(54)
24%
17(4)
27.5%
Aug 20190%
2(0)
30%
27(8)
43%
7(3)
40%
10(4)
35%
275(95)
29%
17(5)
34.0%
Jun 20190%
1(0)
0.0%
May 20190%
2(0)
0%
1(0)
0%
2(0)
38%
48(18)
31%
26(8)
32.9%
Apr 201937%
38(14)
38%
37(14)
17%
18(3)
19%
42(8)
29%
187(54)
35%
17(6)
29.2%
Mar 20190%
2(0)
25%
44(11)
38%
8(3)
23%
13(3)
29%
242(71)
9%
11(1)
27.8%
Feb 2019100%
3(3)
34%
47(16)
38%
24(9)
43%
7(3)
28%
196(55)
8%
12(1)
30.1%
Jan 20190%
2(0)
28%
60(17)
35%
17(6)
50%
2(1)
37%
167(62)
20%
5(1)
34.4%
Dec 201833%
3(1)
13%
8(1)
34%
65(22)
0%
1(0)
25%
4(1)
36%
273(99)
26%
19(5)
34.6%
Nov 20180%
2(0)
38%
34(13)
33%
6(2)
29%
7(2)
37%
170(63)
17%
12(2)
35.5%
Oct 20180%
2(0)
43%
35(15)
27%
11(3)
0%
1(0)
33%
58(19)
20%
5(1)
33.9%
Total33.9%32.9%32.1%24.2%33.1%27.2%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Sunday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 10 matches played).