Season 2020

conservative investor

Team Predictability CI Yield
Montrose 75.0% 92.3%
Annan Athletic 75.0% 52.3%
Nottingham Forest 100.0% 50.3%
Ipswich Town 80.0% 48.6%
Bristol City 100.0% 46.1%
Edinburgh City 100.0% 44.4%
Dundee 100.0% 42.5%
Fleetwood Town 83.3% 40.3%
Stevenage 100.0% 40.0%
Salford City 66.7% 35.0%
St Johnstone 100.0% 34.1%
Falkirk 75.0% 33.3%
Raith Rovers 100.0% 32.9%
Dundee Utd 100.0% 32.0%
Brechin 100.0% 29.6%
Dunfermline 50.0% 29.4%
Sunderland 80.0% 27.9%
Coventry City 100.0% 27.5%
Cambridge United 83.3% 26.0%
Ross County 75.0% 24.1%
Cove Rangers 100.0% 23.1%
Rotherham 60.0% 22.5%
Dumbarton 100.0% 22.4%
Reading 80.0% 20.4%
Queens Park Rangers 100.0% 20.3%
Burton Albion 100.0% 19.2%
Everton 75.0% 18.2%
Sheffield Utd 75.0% 16.9%
Hearts 75.0% 16.5%
Gillingham 100.0% 15.1%
Liverpool 100.0% 14.4%
Celtic 100.0% 14.3%
Aberdeen 50.0% 13.7%
Middlesbrough 83.3% 12.6%
West Bromwich Albion 60.0% 12.2%
Rangers 100.0% 10.5%
Cardiff City 100.0% 10.4%
Forfar 80.0% 8.9%
Queen's Park 100.0% 8.5%
Elgin City 75.0% 6.9%
Fulham 66.7% 6.8%
Southampton 75.0% 6.8%
MK Dons 71.4% 6.5%
Walsall 50.0% 5.5%
Leyton Orient 66.7% 4.7%
Forest Green Rovers 66.7% 2.9%
Inverness CT 75.0% 2.8%
Southend United 80.0% 2.8%
Wolverhampton W 75.0% 2.6%
Stranraer 75.0% 1.9%
Oxford United 80.0% -0.0%
Stoke City 66.7% -0.1%
Newcastle United 75.0% -1.4%
Portsmouth 100.0% -2.1%
Arsenal 100.0% -2.6%
Kilmarnock 75.0% -3.3%
AFC Wimbledon 83.3% -4.3%
Tottenham Hotspur 75.0% -5.0%
Watford 75.0% -5.9%
Morecambe 66.7% -6.8%
Bradford City 66.7% -7.2%
Albion 60.0% -7.9%
Crystal Palace 75.0% -8.3%
Luton Town 60.0% -9.0%
Plymouth Argyle 50.0% -9.3%
Sheffield Wed. 80.0% -9.5%
Ayr 75.0% -9.9%
Hull City 66.7% -10.0%
Alloa 50.0% -11.1%
Leicester City 75.0% -11.5%
Huddersfield Town 66.7% -11.8%
Carlisle United 83.3% -12.4%
Chelsea 75.0% -13.9%
Shrewsbury 60.0% -16.7%
Manchester City 75.0% -17.5%
Exeter City 66.7% -18.1%
Manchester United 75.0% -18.8%
Livingston 75.0% -19.3%
Clyde 25.0% -19.9%
Blackpool 100.0% -20.0%
Colchester United 66.7% -20.3%
Barnsley 66.7% -20.6%
Oldham Athletic 83.3% -21.1%
Motherwell 50.0% -22.5%
Preston NE 66.7% -22.5%
Swansea City 66.7% -22.8%
Swindon Town 66.7% -23.3%
Lincoln City 50.0% -24.1%
Morton 50.0% -24.5%
Brentford 60.0% -27.7%
Bristol Rovers 66.7% -28.0%
Arbroath 75.0% -29.2%
Scunthorpe 33.3% -30.0%
West Ham United 50.0% -31.4%
Leeds United 40.0% -32.1%
Crewe Alexandra 50.0% -32.2%
Birmingham City 80.0% -32.4%
Rochdale 80.0% -33.5%
Peterhead 60.0% -35.6%
Wigan Athletic 40.0% -35.7%
Hamilton 50.0% -37.1%
Hibernian 25.0% -37.4%
Bournemouth 75.0% -37.6%
Derby County 83.3% -38.0%
Partick Thistle 50.0% -38.6%
Norwich City 50.0% -38.8%
Tranmere Rovers 66.7% -40.5%
Crawley Town 50.0% -41.1%
Accrington Stanley 40.0% -41.3%
Burnley 50.0% -41.7%
Grimsby Town 66.7% -41.8%
Millwall 40.0% -41.8%
Stirling Albion 75.0% -42.6%
Stenhousemuir 40.0% -43.4%
Airdrie 60.0% -43.4%
Mansfield Town 33.3% -43.4%
Peterborough United 60.0% -44.3%
Northampton Town 50.0% -45.0%
St Mirren 50.0% -45.0%
Brighton and HA 75.0% -50.0%
Wycombe Wanderers 57.1% -53.2%
East Fife 40.0% -54.9%
Charlton Athletic 33.3% -55.9%
Cheltenham 50.0% -60.8%
Port Vale 50.0% -61.6%
Newport 50.0% -62.3%
Cowdenbeath 20.0% -66.0%
Doncaster Rovers 28.6% -71.4%
Aston Villa 50.0% -75.0%
Bolton Wanderers 20.0% -78.6%
Macclesfield 33.3% -83.3%
Blackburn Rovers 16.7% -83.3%
Queen of South 25.0% -100.0%

 

Measure of a team's predictability when playing home games.

Predictability is defined as winning games a team is expected to win and correspondingly losing games when the odds suggests the team is expected to lose. A team with high predictability is more likely to return a profit on investment than a team with low predictability whilst playing home games on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds.

Magnitude emphasises the degree of predictability in the outcome of the game. The higher, the more assured the punter can be in selecting that team

CI Yield calculates the return where the investor follows the odds for every team game

 

investment day

Period Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
Oct 2019100%
1(1)
57%
7(4)
20%
5(1)
50%
2(1)
39%
57(22)
50%
6(3)
41.0%
Sep 201950%
2(1)
30%
23(7)
17%
6(1)
28%
196(54)
24%
17(4)
27.5%
Aug 20190%
2(0)
30%
27(8)
43%
7(3)
40%
10(4)
35%
275(95)
29%
17(5)
34.0%
Jun 20190%
1(0)
0.0%
May 20190%
2(0)
0%
1(0)
0%
2(0)
38%
48(18)
31%
26(8)
32.9%
Apr 201937%
38(14)
38%
37(14)
17%
18(3)
19%
42(8)
29%
187(54)
35%
17(6)
29.2%
Mar 20190%
2(0)
25%
44(11)
38%
8(3)
23%
13(3)
29%
242(71)
9%
11(1)
27.8%
Feb 2019100%
3(3)
34%
47(16)
38%
24(9)
43%
7(3)
28%
196(55)
8%
12(1)
30.1%
Jan 20190%
2(0)
28%
60(17)
35%
17(6)
50%
2(1)
37%
167(62)
20%
5(1)
34.4%
Dec 201833%
3(1)
13%
8(1)
34%
65(22)
0%
1(0)
25%
4(1)
36%
273(99)
26%
19(5)
34.6%
Nov 20180%
2(0)
38%
34(13)
33%
6(2)
29%
7(2)
37%
170(63)
17%
12(2)
35.5%
Oct 20180%
2(0)
43%
35(15)
27%
11(3)
0%
3(0)
35%
134(47)
20%
5(1)
34.7%
Total33.9%32.9%32.1%24.5%32.9%25.2%
* rolling 12 month

 

Analyses how predictable (see Conservative Investor) games are by day of week.

For example, if 24 games are played in February on a Wednesday, and 7 games resulted in an unpredicatble outcome, the result would be 7/24 = 29%. Therefore, lower percentages offer a greater likelihood of return

Friday

is statistically the best day to invest on the assumption that the outcome selected follows the odds (minimum 10 matches played).